Background: Data on the relationship between protein intake and the risk of type 2 diabetes are conflicting.

Objective: We studied prospective associations between the intake of total, plant-based, and animal protein and the risk of pre-diabetes and diabetes in 4 population-based studies included in the PREVIEW project.

Methods: Analyses were conducted with the use of data from 3 European cohorts and 1 Canadian cohort, including 78,851 participants. Protein intake was assessed through the use of harmonized data from food-frequency questionnaires or 3-d dietary records. Cohort-specific incidence ratios (IRs) were estimated for pre-diabetes and diabetes, adjusting for general characteristics, lifestyle and dietary factors, disease history, and body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference; results were pooled based on a random-effects meta-analysis.

Results: Higher total protein intake (g · kg-1 · d-1) was associated with lower incidences of pre-diabetes and diabetes (pooled IRs: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.87 and 0.49; 95% CI: 0.28, 0.83, respectively); plant-based protein intake was the main determinant (pooled IRs: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.81, 0.86 and 0.53; 95% CI: 0.36, 0.76, respectively). Substituting 2 energy percentage (E%) protein at the expense of carbohydrates revealed increased risks of pre-diabetes and diabetes (pooled IRs: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.07 and 1.09; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.18, respectively). Except for the associations between intakes of total protein and plant-based protein (g · kg-1 · d-1) and diabetes, all other associations became nonsignificant after adjustment for BMI and waist circumference.

Conclusions: Higher protein intake (g · kg-1 · d-1) was associated with a lower risk of pre-diabetes and diabetes. Associations were substantially attenuated after adjustments for BMI and waist circumference, which demonstrates a crucial role for adiposity and may account for previous conflicting findings. This study was registered at ISRCTN as ISRCTN31174892.